Comparison of six hepatocellular carcinoma prediction models in Japanese patients after sustained virologic response undergoing rigorous surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma.
J Gastroenterol Hepatol
; 39(5): 949-954, 2024 May.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38291715
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND AND AIM:
While several predictive models for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been proposed, including those for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who have achieved sustained virologic response (SVR), the best model may differ between regions. We compared the ability of six reported models to stratify the risk of post-SVR HCC in Japan, where rigorous surveillance and early detection of HCC is common.METHODS:
A total of 6048 patients with no history of HCC who achieved SVR by oral direct-acting antiviral drugs were enrolled in this nationwide study. Patients continued HCC surveillance every 6 months after SVR. The incidence of post-SVR HCC was compared between risk groups using the aMAP score, FIB-4 index, Tahata model, GAF4 criteria, GES score, and ADRES score.RESULTS:
During the observation period with a median duration of 4.0 years after SVR, post-SVR HCC developed in 332 patients (5.5%). All six models performed significantly at stratifying the incidence of HCC. However, Harrell's C-index was below 0.8 for all models (range, 0.660-0.748), indicating insufficient stratification ability.CONCLUSION:
Although all six proposed models demonstrated a good ability to predict the development of post-SVR HCC, their ability to stratify the risk of post-SVRHCC was unsatisfactory. Further studies are necessary to identify the best model for assessing the risk of post-SVR HCC in regions where early detection of HCC is common.Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Antiviral Agents
/
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular
/
Hepatitis C, Chronic
/
Sustained Virologic Response
/
Liver Neoplasms
Type of study:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
/
Screening_studies
Limits:
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
En
Journal:
J Gastroenterol Hepatol
Journal subject:
GASTROENTEROLOGIA
Year:
2024
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Country of publication: