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Comparison of six hepatocellular carcinoma prediction models in Japanese patients after sustained virologic response undergoing rigorous surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma.
Toyoda, Hidenori; Tada, Toshifumi; Uojima, Haruki; Nozaki, Akito; Chuma, Makoto; Takaguchi, Koichi; Hiraoka, Atsushi; Abe, Hiroshi; Itobayashi, Ei; Matsuura, Kentaro; Atsukawa, Masanori; Watanabe, Tsunamasa; Shimada, Noritomo; Nakamuta, Makoto; Kojima, Motoyuki; Tsuji, Kunihiko; Mikami, Shigeru; Ishikawa, Toru; Yasuda, Satoshi; Tsutsui, Akemi; Arai, Taeang; Kumada, Takashi; Tanaka, Yasuhito; Tanaka, Junko; Chayama, Kazuaki.
Affiliation
  • Toyoda H; Department of Gastroenterology, Ogaki Municipal Hospital, Ogaki, Japan.
  • Tada T; Department of Internal Medicine, Japanese Red Cross Himeji Hospital, Himeji, Japan.
  • Uojima H; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kitasato University School of Medicine, Sagamihara, Japan.
  • Nozaki A; Gastroenterology Center, Yokohama City University Medical Center, Yokohama, Japan.
  • Chuma M; Gastroenterology Center, Yokohama City University Medical Center, Yokohama, Japan.
  • Takaguchi K; Department of Hepatology, Kagawa Prefectural Central Hospital, Takamatsu, Japan.
  • Hiraoka A; Gastroenterology Center, Ehime Prefectural Central Hospital, Matsuyama, Japan.
  • Abe H; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Shinmatusdo Central General Hospital, Matsudo, Japan.
  • Itobayashi E; Department of Gastroenterology, Asahi General Hospital, Asahi, Japan.
  • Matsuura K; Department of Gastroenterology and Metabolism, Nagoya City University, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Nagoya, Japan.
  • Atsukawa M; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Nippon Medical School, Tokyo, Japan.
  • Watanabe T; Department of Internal Medicine, St. Marianna University School of Medicine, Kawasaki, Japan.
  • Shimada N; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Otakanomori Hospital, Kashiwa, Japan.
  • Nakamuta M; Department of Gastroenterology, Clinical Research Institute, National Hospital Organization Kyushu Medical Center, Fukuoka, Japan.
  • Kojima M; Department of Gastroenterology, Clinical Research Institute, National Hospital Organization Kyushu Medical Center, Fukuoka, Japan.
  • Tsuji K; Center for Gastroenterology, Teine Keijinkai Hospital, Sapporo, Japan.
  • Mikami S; Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kikkoman General Hospital, Noda, Japan.
  • Ishikawa T; Department of Hepatology, Saiseikai Niigata Hospital, Niigata, Japan.
  • Yasuda S; Department of Gastroenterology, Ogaki Municipal Hospital, Ogaki, Japan.
  • Tsutsui A; Department of Hepatology, Kagawa Prefectural Central Hospital, Takamatsu, Japan.
  • Arai T; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Nippon Medical School, Tokyo, Japan.
  • Kumada T; Department of Nursing, Gifu Kyoritsu University, Ogaki, Japan.
  • Tanaka Y; Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Kumamoto University Faculty of Life Sciences, Kumamoto, Japan.
  • Tanaka J; Department of Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control, and Prevention, Hiroshima University Institute of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima, Japan.
  • Chayama K; Department of Medical Innovation, Hiroshima University Institute of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima, Japan.
J Gastroenterol Hepatol ; 39(5): 949-954, 2024 May.
Article in En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38291715
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND AND

AIM:

While several predictive models for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been proposed, including those for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who have achieved sustained virologic response (SVR), the best model may differ between regions. We compared the ability of six reported models to stratify the risk of post-SVR HCC in Japan, where rigorous surveillance and early detection of HCC is common.

METHODS:

A total of 6048 patients with no history of HCC who achieved SVR by oral direct-acting antiviral drugs were enrolled in this nationwide study. Patients continued HCC surveillance every 6 months after SVR. The incidence of post-SVR HCC was compared between risk groups using the aMAP score, FIB-4 index, Tahata model, GAF4 criteria, GES score, and ADRES score.

RESULTS:

During the observation period with a median duration of 4.0 years after SVR, post-SVR HCC developed in 332 patients (5.5%). All six models performed significantly at stratifying the incidence of HCC. However, Harrell's C-index was below 0.8 for all models (range, 0.660-0.748), indicating insufficient stratification ability.

CONCLUSION:

Although all six proposed models demonstrated a good ability to predict the development of post-SVR HCC, their ability to stratify the risk of post-SVRHCC was unsatisfactory. Further studies are necessary to identify the best model for assessing the risk of post-SVR HCC in regions where early detection of HCC is common.
Subject(s)
Key words

Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Antiviral Agents / Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Hepatitis C, Chronic / Sustained Virologic Response / Liver Neoplasms Type of study: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies / Screening_studies Limits: Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: En Journal: J Gastroenterol Hepatol Journal subject: GASTROENTEROLOGIA Year: 2024 Document type: Article Affiliation country: Country of publication:

Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Antiviral Agents / Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Hepatitis C, Chronic / Sustained Virologic Response / Liver Neoplasms Type of study: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies / Screening_studies Limits: Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: En Journal: J Gastroenterol Hepatol Journal subject: GASTROENTEROLOGIA Year: 2024 Document type: Article Affiliation country: Country of publication: